Thesis & Dissertations(Doctoral & Master)

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Credit terms, Credit Accessibility and Sustainability of SMES in Uganda: Acase study of SMES in Nakawa division Kampala.
(Makerere University Business School, 2018-08-07) Muhire, Francis
The study was carried out with the purpose of establishing the relationship between Credit terms, Credit accessibility and Sustainability of Small and Medium Enterprises in Uganda. The study was guided by the following objectives to examine; the relationship between credit terms and sustainability of SMEs, the relationship between credit accessibility and sustainability of SMEs, and the combined effect of credit terms and credit accessibility on the sustainability of SMEs in Nakawa Division. The study was based on a cross sectional research design and quantitative research approach out of 743 registered SMEs in Nakawa Division and, a sample of 248 SMEs was drawn. Primary data was collected using questionnaires. Data from the field was compiled, sorted, edited for analysis using SPSS. The results indicated a significant positive relationships between credit terms and sustainability, credit accessibility and sustainability and, a combination of credit terms and credit accessibility and sustainability of SMEs within Nakawa Division. Based on the findings, the study recommended that financial Institutions need to relax credit terms which will increase credit accessibility that also automatically lead to sustainability, SMEs should ensure mechanisms that can boost their credit accessibility and the government should put in place policies that ensures easy access to credit by SMEs and should further increase funding and come up with more entrepreneurship oriented programs such as capital ventures which well maximized guarantee sustainability of SMEs.
Participatory budgeting, internal controls and service delivery performance in selected public health facilities a case of Wakiso district
(Makerere University Business School, 2021-10-26) Ahwera, Stacy, Echongu
This study aimed to establish the relationship between participatory budgeting, internal controls and the service delivery performance in selected public health facilities in Uganda. The specific objectives were to establish the relationship between participatory budgeting and service delivery performance in selected public health facilities in Uganda, to examine the relationship between internal controls and service delivery performance in selected public health facilities in Uganda and to examine the contribution of participatory budgeting and internal controls on service delivery performance in selected public health facilities in Uganda. The research adopted a cross-sectional survey design. A self-administered quantitative questionnaire was used to collect data from 59 public health facility staff and 118 community members. Purposive sampling technique was used to select the respondents. Statistical package for social science (SPSS version 23.0) was used to analyze the data. The study findings revealed that there was a positive significant relationship between participatory budgeting and service delivery performance in the selected Public health facilities. It was also found out that there was a negative relationship between internal controls and service delivery performance in the selected public health facilities. Furthermore, using the hierarchical regression model, the study found out that participatory budgeting and internal controls combined contributed 48.2% of the variance in service delivery performance in the selected public health facilities. The study recommends that Participatory budgeting can be improved through engaging citizen’s participation, resource allocation and ensuring transparency. Therefore, government’s effort to improve service delivery in Public Health facilities should focus on engagement of the communities in the budgeting process.
Determinants Of foreign Direct Investment Inflows in Uganda
(Makerere University Business School, 2021-12-20) Sempambo, Eric
In the progression towards economic growth, countries consider investment as a critical feature in raising productivity levels by boosting technological progress and reducing the unemployment rate. In recent years, the Government of Uganda has enacted policies to entice Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in the view of creating more jobs and bolstering the economy. However, the performance of FDI has registered mixed understanding of trends with oscillations rather than a clear growth trajectory. One would then wonder, what could be the determinants of FDI inflows in Uganda. A longitudinal research design comprised of a 29-year time series was used with inflation rate, interest rate, Balance of Payment, GDP percapita and exports serving as the determinates of FDI inflows in Uganda. Several diagnostics tests were conducted. Johansen test for cointegration which revealed that the long run relationship exists amongst the variables. Pearson Correlation technique was used to establish the level of relationship between the macro economic factors and FDI inflows. Vector Error Correction Model was constructed to determine the contribution of these variables to FDI inflows. Results from the study revealed that Inflation, exports, interest rate and GDP percapita determine the FDI inflows in Uganda. Foreign investment is driven by the size of GDP percapita of Uganda, implying that investors target more domestic market. An average of 6% inflation rate is desired by foreign investors in Uganda. And, a high interest rate of Uganda attracts more FDI inflows meaning that investors require a safe and stable business environment. It was also found that balance of payment is statistically insignificantly related to FDI. This means that the relationship could actually be by chance. Government is therefore urged to; i. Devise mechanisms and policies that target improving percapita income of the population. This will increase the market size hence more FDI inflows. ii. Monetary policy should target maintain inflation rate at 6.4%. This is highly required to support foreign investments. iii. Target import substitution and provision of incentives for investors that target export market to attract more export oriented FDI into the economy
Audit quality, team competence and financial performance of commercial banks in Kampala central division
(Makerere University Business School, 2022-01-10) Akangwagye, Johnson
The study sought to establish the relationship between audit quality and financial performance of commercial Banks in Kampala Central Division. The study adopted across sectional and correlation quantitative design using 24 commercial Banks in Kampala central 24 commercial banks in Kampala central division that were drawn from a population of 26commercial banks. The sample size was determined using Krejcie and Morgan Tables (1970). The data were tested for reliability and validity, analyzed using SPSS version 21 and results presented based on the study objectives. The correlation coefficient analysis revealed positive and significant relationships between audit quality, team competence and financial performance of commercial Banks which implies that when one variable is improved it leads to improvement of the other. Furthermore, the hierarchical regression analysis indicates that audit quality combined with team competence have a greater predictive potential on the financial performance (Adj R2 of 0.324). However, it was further revealed that audit quality has a more direct effect on the financial performance based on the individual contribution (R Square Change 0.202). Therefore, it’s worth recommending that The management of the commercial banks should ensure that they hire quality audit firms and ensure that employees who work in the internal audits are well qualified and they should do this by tracking their history and also how big they are in dealing with different bigger audits. This will enable the commercial banks to get independent and quality reports about their performance and this will help them to continue correcting their mistakes and improve performance. It should ensure that the employees have the right attitude towards work, this can be done by ensuring that the environment is conducive for business continuity and it enables workers to be promoted.
The Effect of Monetary Policy on Private Sector Credit Growth in Uganda
(2023) Aenu, Emma Dean
This study investigated the effect of monetary policy on Private sector credit growth in Uganda. The specific objectives of the study included investigating the determinants of private sector credit growth in Uganda, examining the usal relationship between commercial lending rate, money supply and private sector credit growth. Employing the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), the study used monthly time series data that spanned a period of 12 years ranging from 2010 to 2022. The results of the study showed that, in the short run, both money supply and lending rate have positive and significant effect on private sector credit growth while the positive effect of interbank rate was found not to be significant both in the short run and long run. The short run results also indicated that Treasury bill rate has a negative and significant effect on private sector credit growth. In the long run, money supply had a negative effect on private sector credit, though not statistically significant. Lending rate has a negative and significant effect on private sector credit growth in the long run. Treasury bill rate had a positive and significant effect on private sector credit growth in the long run. The granger casualty test indicated a uni-direction causation running from money supply to private sector credit growth, while a uni-direction causation was confirmed running from private sector credit growth to lending rate in Ugandan. The study recommends for further reforms aimed at maintaining monetary policy credibility and promotion of macroeconomic stability and financial sector development.
The Determinants of Export Growth in Uganda.
(2023) Vundru, Wilbert Drazi
Empirical research suggests that export growth contributes to economic growth. As such, the study set out to investigate the determinants of export growth in Uganda within the framework of an augmented gravity model of trade using panel data covering 17 years from 2005 – 2021 for Uganda and 21 of her top trading partners. The Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood regression (PPML) was used to reveal the effect that variables such as exchange rate volatility, foreign direct investment, infrastructure quality, institutional quality and EAC membership have on Uganda’s export growth. The findings suggest that exports grow significantly with the expansion of infrastructure quality, institutional quality of Uganda and foreign direct investment. The effect of exchange rate volatility was determined to be insignificant with respect to Uganda’s export growth. Surprisingly, membership in the East African Community was found to have a negative effect on export growth in Uganda. Distance between Uganda and her trading partners was also found to have a significant negative effect. This study recommends that to improve Uganda’s export growth rate, government should boost inbound FDI because it could act a conduit for technological transfer which could directly impact on the volume and value of Uganda’s exports through value addition. Government of Uganda should invest more in infrastructure like rail lines since it would help boost the level of exports. The significance of the East African Community membership should be reviewed by policy makers to make sure that non-tariff barriers to trade are removed to allow for exports in Uganda and the region to grow.
Determinants of Manufacturing Sector Growth in the East African Community.
(2023) Wako, Ibrahim Kisu
This study examines the factors influencing manufacturing sector growth in East African Community (EAC) member states from 2001 to 2021, focusing on inflation, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), lending rates, and Domestic Credit. Panel data was utilised and the Feasible Generalized Least Squares (FGLS) estimator was applied to address heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation. Results indicate that inflation and lending rates significantly impact manufacturing sector growth, while Domestic Credit and FDI do not show significant effects. The study highlights the importance of maintaining macroeconomic stability through effective inflation control measures and sound monetary policies to facilitate manufacturing sector growth. The report also stresses the necessity of steady and affordable loan rates for manufacturers, which can be attained through focused interventions and rewards for financial institutions. Attracting FDI to the manufacturing sector remains crucial, and governments should actively pursue such opportunities. Continued research is recommended to deepen our understanding of the complexities surrounding manufacturing sector growth. These actions collectively aim to bolster industrialization and economic growth in EAC member states, ultimately promoting prosperity throughout the region.
The Effect of Monetary Policy on Private Sector Credit Growth in Uganda.
(2023) Aenu, Emma Dean
This study investigated the effect of monetary policy on Private sector credit growth in Uganda. The specific objectives of the study included investigating the determinants of private sector credit growth in Uganda, examining the causal relationship between commercial lending rate, money supply and private sector credit growth. Employing the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), the study used monthly time series data that spanned a period of 12 years ranging from 2010 to 2022. The results of the study showed that, in the short run, both money supply and lending rate have positive and significant effect on private sector credit growth while the positive effect of interbank rate was found not to be significant both in the short run and long run. The short run results also indicated that Treasury bill rate has a negative and significant effect on private sector credit growth. In the long run, money supply had a negative effect on private sector credit, though not statistically significant. Lending rate has a negative and significant effect on private sector credit growth in the long run. Treasury bill rate had a positive and significant effect on private sector credit growth in the long run. The granger casualty test indicated a uni-direction causation running from money supply to private sector credit growth, while a uni-direction causation was confirmed running from private sector credit growth to lending rate in Ugandan. The study recommends for further reforms aimed at maintaining monetary policy credibility and promotion of macroeconomic stability and financial sector development.
The Effect of the China Belt Road Initiative (BRI) Strategy on Uganda's Economic Growth.
(2023) Natukunda, Winnie
This study investigated the effect of China Belt Road Initiative (BRI) strategy on Uganda’s Economic Growth. The study used Descriptive, inferential statistics, correlation and regression analysis to investigate the effect of BRI strategy on economic growth in Uganda. The results of the study indicate that there is a positive and significant effect of China Belt Initiative on Uganda’s economic growth through household and firm productivity channels and through creation of employment opportunities. The policy implication for this study includes the following: Strengthening of active engagement with civil society and community organizations as mainstreamed stakeholders in project development, implementation and impact assessment. More ‘people-to-people’ trans-border relationships and strategic relationships be promoted through furthering policy-oriented research on BRI implementation, effectiveness and impact. Emphasize involvement of local enterprises in BRI projects as well as committing to environment and social governance safeguards in order to prevent and mitigate undue arm to people and their environment in the development process.
Female Labour Force Participation Rate and Uganda's Economic Growth.
(2023) Apire, John Paul
The purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of selected female labor force participation indicators on Uganda’s economic growth. The study focused on the effect of female labor force participation rate, the level of education of females in labor force and fertility rate on Uganda’s economic growth. The study adopted a causal relationship research design and utilized time series quarterly data for the period 1990 -2021 obtained from World Bank development indicators and the Uganda Bureau of Statistics in the analysis. Estimation of the empirical model was achieved by employing the ARDL (3, 3, 1, 1, 1, 2) model. Estimates indicated that, over the period of analysis, female labor force participation rate had a significant negative causal effect on Uganda’s economic growth in the short run but did not show any causal influence in the long run, which supported the postulates of the U-shape hypothesis. Estimates further showed that female labor force with basic education had no short run and long run causal effect on Uganda’s economic growth while the female fertility rate had negative short run causal influence on Uganda’s economic growth but showed no long run causal effect. Results from this study give a precursor that policy focusing on skills acquisition of female in labor force, scaling up of birth control measures as well as enacting policies that increase physical capital stocks may be lucrative policy options to boost Uganda’s economic growth. The study contributes to existing body of literature by adopting and modifying the Solow-style neoclassical model in combination of the U-shape development hypothesis by disaggregating the labor input by gender and analyzing its contribution to growth in Uganda’s economic growth.
The Influence of Governance and Economic Factors on Electricity Access in Uganda.
(2023) Ayebazibwe, Julius
Over time, electricity access has proved to be engine to the socio-economic development through facilitation of mechanized production and service provision. This study examined the combined effect of the economic factors and governance factors on electricity access in Uganda. A longitudinal research design was employed which involve a quantitative approach using time series data obtained from the World Bank data bank from 1996 to 2019 to establish the correlation and strength and relationship between independent variables and the dependent variable. This study used the VAR models to examine the economic, governance and combined effects as per the objectives. The results established that the economic factors alone have no significant effect on electricity access while the governance factors have a significant effect on electricity access. However, the results show that when these factors are combined, investment in the energy sector and control of corruption have significant positive effects while regulatory quality has a positive implying that there is a significant combined effect or economic and governance factors on electricity access. Nonetheless, this study confirmed that all these factors are key in determining electricity access in the long run and thus they must be incorporated in the planning processes by government. However, this study did not establish any cointegration among the variables and there was no causality from the independent variables to the dependent variable. Furthermore, the study established the need for further research to examine the bloodline factors of electricity access in Uganda’s context using a mix of approaches such as qualitative and quantitative methods in order to close the knowledge gap identified by the results of this study.
Remittences, Education, Ethnicity and Adoption of Biogas Technology among House Holds in Uganda.
(2023) Kiiza, Nelson
The purpose of this study was to establish factors influencing biogas adoption among households in Uganda. Four specific objectives guided this study: (i) examine the relationship between financial remittances and adoption of biogas energy technology; (ii) examine the relationship between education attainment and adoption of biogas energy technology; (iii) examine the relationship between ethnicity and adoption of biogas energy technology; and (iv) examine the moderating effect of education attainment on ethnicity and adoption of biogas energy technology. To address the specific objectives, the study used the 2019–2020 Uganda National Household Survey (UNHS 2019–2020) data collected by the Uganda Bureau of Statistics (UBOS), covering a total sample of 13,732 randomly selected households. Quantitative research approaches were employed, and a binary probit regression model was used to estimate the marginal effects of financial remittances, education attainment, and ethnicity on biogas adoption among households. The study found that financial remittance has a positive (0.050) and significant (p < 0.01) association with biogas adoption. Meaning that remittance inflow increases the likelihood of a household adopting biogas technology by approximately 5%. Education attainment of household heads is positive (0.050) and significantly (p < 0.01) correlated with biogas adoption. This means that an increase in education attainment in terms of years of schooling increases the likelihood of a household installing biogas technology by 5%. Ethnicity is positive (0.020) and significantly (p < 0.01) associated with biogas adoption. Implying that ethnic diversity is associated with a 2% increase in the probability of a household adopting biogas technology. The interaction effect of ethnicity and education is positive (0.044) and significant (p < 0.01) on biogas adoption. Implying that marginal change in ethnic diversity increases the likelihood of a household using biogas by 4.4% if the household head has attained formal education. Overall, the findings suggest that financial remittance, education, and ethnicity combined have the capacity to explain about 20.9% of biogas adoptions in households. Furthermore, results show that household size, rural residence, regional location of the household, housing condition, and access to grid electricity have a significant positive effect on biogas adoption. The study recommends that there is a need to fast-track policies and initiatives that encourage remittance inflows, as this enhances household income and the ability to invest in biogas systems. In addition, biogas practitioners should invest in educational and awareness programs, particularly regarding the benefits that the technology can provide, as this will accelerate the uptake of the technology.
Agribusiness, Export Performance, and Youth Unemployment in Uganda
(Makerere University Business School, 2023) Mufuumula, Jude
This study investigated the effect of Agribusiness (AGRIB) and export performance on Youth unemployment in Uganda. The specific objectives of the study included establishing the effects of agribusiness, export performance on youth unemployment. Employing the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), the study used time series data that spanned a period of 31 years ranging from 1991 to 2021. The results of the study showed that, in the short run, both agribusiness and export performance had a negative effect on youth unemployment. However,these coefficients were found not to be significant in the short run thus not affecting youth unemployment. In the long run, agribusiness and export performance have negative and significant effect on youth unemployment. The granger casualty test indicated a uni-directional causation running from export performance to youth unemployment. It however indicated no directional causation between agribusiness and youth unemployment at 5% level of significance in Ugandan. The study recommends that the Government needs to boost inflow of modern efficient agricultural technology to quicken and expand agro-output. It also recommends for government-private partnership in training and equipping the youth with entrepreneur skills that are required to fully explore the potentially available opportunities in agribusiness and export sector. Trade barriers should be done away with and new and sustainable trade relations should be sought with other countries.
The Effect of Central Bank Rate on Uganda's Commercial Banks Lending Rates.
(2023) Kibuuka, Francis Louis
This study investigated the effect of Central Bank Rate (CBR) on Commercial bank’s lending rates in Uganda. The study thus had a major objective of examining the effect of the central bank rate, on the commercial banks’ lending rates, as a monetary policy stance in Uganda. The specific objectives of the study included establishing the short run and long run effects of central bank rate, Inflation and Exchange rate on commercial banks’ lending rate. Employing the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), the study used time series data that spanned a period of 127 months ranging from January 2012 to July 2022. The results of the study showed that, in the short run, commercial banks’ lending rate is affected by central bank rate and exchange rate, with all having positive effects. Inflation was found not be significant in the short run thus not affecting the lending rate. In the long run however, only CBR and Inflation had a positive effect on commercial banks’ lending rate while Exchange rate was observed to be insignificant and thus having no effect on the lending rate in the long run. The study recommends that the central bank should deliberately and effectively set the CBR that will influence moderate and affordable commercial banks’ lending rates in order to boost credit accessibility.
An Evaluation of the Internal Control Environment at Stabex Fuel Stations in Central Uganda.
(2023) Kiyegga, Stephen
The study sought to examine the internal control environment at Stabex fuel stations in central Uganda and addressed the challenges of the internal control environment of the fuel stations. The objectives that guided the study included; to assess the existing internal control environment at Stabex fuel stations; to examine the deficiencies in the internal control environment at Stabex fuel stations; and to identify solutions for the deficiencies in the internal control environment at Stabex fuel stations. A cross sectional design was adopted for the study and from a population of 172 respondents, a sample size of 141 was selected using purposive sampling and simple random sampling. A self-administered questionnaire was used to collect data from the respondents and the data was analyzed using the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS V22). The findings showed that the level of the internal control environment at the stations in regard to internal control environment, financial control environment, information and communication systems, monitoring and audit functions, health, environment and safety, and inventory management was moderate. This requires Stabex to find ways of improving the internal control environment at the stations. This is validation that there existed some level of internal control environment management at the stations. This is because internal control environment management provides an arena where the stakeholders of Stabex can help the stations become effective. The findings revealed that the challenges in managing the internal control environment were inadequate internal control procedures and measures, unethical behaviour of staff, poor employee compensation/remuneration, inadequate fraud control and prevention, and unnoticed misconduct among others. The management of Stabex should therefore identify the causes of these challenges and devise ways of addressing them as this would greatly impact on the effectiveness and efficiency of the internal control environment at the stations in the long run. The study therefore recommends that the management of Stabex should draw adequate attention to ensure the effective and efficient operations of cash controls, inventory management, compliance with regulations, internal auditing, access controls, employee training, surveillance and monitoring, reporting and communication channels, fraud prevention measures, risk management, adherence to standard operating procedures, supervision and oversight, and continuous improvement.
The Effect of Government Expenditure, World Food Prices and World Fuel Prices on Inflation Rate in Uganda.
(2023) Kafuko, Cynthia Grace
This study investigates the effect of government expenditure, world food price and world fuel price on inflation rate and their causal direction. Employing the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and the two-step granger causality test, the study establishes that government expenditure has a positive and significant effect on the rate of inflation in the long run. World fuel prices is established to have a positive and significant effect on inflation rate both in the short run and in the long run. The study further establishes a positive effect of world food price on inflation rate but it is only significant in the short run. Further, a bi-directional granger causality relationship is established to exist between the rate of inflation and each of the independent variables. The study recommended that government should closely monitor the dynamics in world food and energy prices in order to curtail their secondary effects on domestic prices. Massive investment in agricultural sector, especially in rural areas to increase food production and reduce importation of food. It further recommends for government investments in renewable energy that’s more affordable and sustainable.
Assessment of Energy Demand Side Management in Higher Institutions of Learning Lecture Rooms.
(2023) Samanya, Micheal
Global interest in Energy Demand Side Management (DSM) is growing, particularly in industrial and domestic sectors. However, there is a lack of attention in existing literature regarding DSM practices in higher education institutions, especially in developing countries. This study explores DSM in higher education lecture rooms, examining energy consumption, costs, emissions, and optimization strategies. The analysis of energy consumption patterns in lecture rooms at higher education institutions reveals significant variations throughout the day, emphasizing the need for tailored DSM strategies. Morning sessions consume 2,564 kWh, afternoon sessions 3,467 kWh, and evening sessions peak at 4,095 kWh. Evening sessions stand out as the highest energy consumers due to reduced natural daylight, underscoring the urgency of DSM measures. These variations in energy consumption highlight the importance of adjusting energy use to match actual demand, rather than following static lighting schedules. Key optimization strategies include dynamic lighting control, automated schedules, energy-efficient technologies like LEDs, maintenance of faulty lights, and occupancy-based lighting. These strategies align with the Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology (UTAUT), emphasizing factors influencing DSM adoption. Integrating these practices can lead to substantial reductions in energy consumption, further reinforced by figures indicating the potential for energy optimization during all sessions. The study results revealed that for 76.58% of the study time, the Lights were kept ON and only switched OFF 23.42% of the study time in the month of March. The study quantified energy costs incurred by keeping lights ON during daytime, demonstrating that keeping lights ON in the selected lecture rooms during the morning, afternoon and evening sessions amounted to about UGX 591,504.24, UGX 797,538.89 and UGX 968,310.83, respectively, in the Month of March. These cost variations emphasize the need for DSM to manage demand and reduce expenses. Additionally, the embedded greenhouse gas emissions attributed to keeping lights ON were assessed to underscore the environmental impact. Keeping lights ON in the morning, afternoon and evening sessions accounted for about 189.23 kgCO2eq, 255.14 gCO2eq and 309.77 kgCO2eq emissions, respectively, in the e month of March. Embracing DSM strategies could contribute to a reduction in the carbon footprint in educational institutions' lecture rooms, aligning with global environmental goals. The study also reveals that energy consumption persists during weekends and holidays, with an actual energy consumption of 504.9 kWh. These figures highlight untapped opportunities for energy conservation during non-academic periods, further underscoring the need for efficient resource allocation. In summary, this study emphasized the dynamic nature of energy consumption in higher education lecture rooms and underscores the significance of DSM strategies in optimizing energy usage. The integration of figures, including frequency, cost, and greenhouse gas emissions, reinforces the importance of DSM in minimizing energy wastage, reducing operational expenses, and contributing to environmental sustainability. Policy recommendations include incentivizing energy-efficient practices, integrating renewables, and fostering collaboration among institutions. Future research avenues involve a comprehensive consumption analysis, longitudinal studies, and advanced technology exploration to further enhance energy management in higher institutions of learning.
The Determinants of Uganda's Debt Sustainability.
(2023) Mande, Sharon
The purpose of the study was to examine the determinants of debt sustainability in Uganda. The study was guided by the objectives which included; to examine the effect of Primary balance on debt sustainability in Uganda, to examine the effect of real effective interest rate on debt sustainability in Uganda, to examine the effect of real GDP on debt sustainability in Uganda, to examine the effect of real exchange rate on debt sustainability in Uganda and to examine the effect of Trade openness on debt sustainability in Uganda. This study used a time series research design. Time series data based multivariate regression analytical procedures was employed to estimate the empirical model. The study used secondary data published by World Bank, IMF and Bank of Uganda for the period 1988 to 2021 based on annual manner that will constitute the unit of observation for the study. This period was considered for the study because of data reliability, and in addition, it covered the shift in time when Uganda went established more development agendas and turbulence times. The data passed all the assumptions of parametric thus making the results unbiased. The findings indicated that primary balance, real effective exchange rate, current account balance and real interest rate were found to have a significant effect with debt sustainability in Uganda in long run. While in short run, all the independent variables had a significant effect on debt sustainability in Uganda. From the findings, the study recommends strategies like maintaining a fiscal surplus, managing interest rates, fostering economic growth, prudent foreign exchange management, and achieving current account surpluses. Prioritizing fiscal prudence involves controlling expenditures and boosting revenue. Monitoring and stabilizing interest rates prevent high borrowing costs. While GDP growth may not directly impact debt-to-GDP ratios, it aids development via business improvement and investment. To mitigate exchange rate impact, manage foreign exchange wisely and reduce reliance on foreign-currency debt. Encouraging export-led growth, domestic industries, and competitiveness ensures sustainable trade balances and debt levels.
Economic Growth, Urbanization, Electricity Prices and Electricity Consumption in Uganda.
(2023) Mwesigwa, Noa
The Study examines the long-run relationship between economic growth, urbanization and electricity consumption in Uganda while controlling for electricity tariffs. The Study used quarterly time series data from the Electricity Regulatory Authority of Uganda and the World Bank. The Study tests for the unit root and cointegration using Augmented Dickey-Fuller and Johansen cointegration respectively. The existence of a long-run relationship allowed the Study to examine the existence of the series under investigation using vector error correction causality/block exogeneity Wald tests. The Study results show population, urbanization and economic growth have a positive and significant long-run effect on electricity consumption while electricity tariff has a negative and significant effect on electricity consumption. The Study, therefore, recommends that the government through Electricity Regulatory Authority should strive to make electricity affordable by lowing tariffs and allowing the provision for load shifting at peak to off-peak hours by domestic consumers, manufacturers and local small businesses. The Study further recommends that government should boost the purchasing power for both rural and urban people through creating self-help projects and cheap financial credits for capital development.
External Debt and Poverty Level in Uganda.
(2023) Nalunkuma, Shamirah
This study investigated the effect of External Debt (EXD) on Poverty level in Uganda. The specific objectives of the study included establishing the short run and long run effects of external debt, debt servicing and income percapita on poverty level. Employing the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), the study used time series data that spanned a period of 28 years ranging from 1992 to 2019. The results of the study showed that, in the short run, external debt, percapita income and debt servicing do not influence the poverty level. In the long run, external debt and debt servicing were found to increase poverty level while percapita income had was found to reduce poverty level and statistically significant. The granger casualty test indicated a uni-directional causation running from poverty level to external debt in Ugandan. The study recommends that the Government needs to mobilize its domestic savings that are more reliable and less risky, and it should pursue vigorously policy initiatives that will alleviate poverty.

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