The Determinants of Export Growth in Uganda.
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Date
2023
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Abstract
Empirical research suggests that export growth contributes to economic growth. As such, the study set out to investigate the determinants of export growth in Uganda within the framework of an augmented gravity model of trade using panel data covering 17 years from 2005 – 2021 for Uganda and 21 of her top trading partners. The Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood regression (PPML) was used to reveal the effect that variables such as exchange rate volatility, foreign direct investment, infrastructure quality, institutional quality and EAC membership have on Uganda’s export growth. The findings suggest that exports grow significantly with the expansion of infrastructure quality, institutional quality of Uganda and foreign direct investment. The effect of exchange rate volatility was determined to be insignificant with respect to Uganda’s export growth. Surprisingly, membership in the East African Community was found to have a negative effect on export growth in Uganda. Distance between Uganda and her trading partners was also found to have a significant negative effect. This study recommends that to improve Uganda’s export growth rate, government should boost inbound FDI because it could act a conduit for technological transfer which could directly impact on the volume and value of Uganda’s exports through value addition. Government of Uganda should invest more in infrastructure like rail lines since it would help boost the level of exports. The significance of the East African Community membership should be reviewed by policy makers to make sure that non-tariff barriers to trade are removed to allow for exports in Uganda and the region to grow.
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A Dissertation Submitted to Makerere University Business School (Faculty of Graduate Studies and Research) in Partial Fulfilments of the Requirements for the Award of the Degree of Masters of Arts in Economic Policy and Management of Makerere University. (PLAN A).
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Wilbert, D . V (2023) The Determinants of Export Growth in Uganda : The Gravity Model Analysis. Unpublished Masters Dissertation Makerere University Business School. Kampala, Uganda.