Browsing by Author "Rukundo, Louis Prosper"

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    Unbundling The Challenges of Reliability of the Power Transmission Grid in Uganda.
    (Makerere University Business School, 2024-12-08) Rukundo, Louis Prosper
    This study examines the socio-economic determinants of electricity transmission grid reliability in Uganda, a critical issue for Sub-Saharan Africa’s energy security, using the System Average Interruption Frequency Index (SAIFI) over 2004–2024. Focusing on vandalism costs, infrastructural investment, and urbanization rate, with control variables (GDP growth, population growth, energy demand), the research employs a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) to analyze 21 annual observations. Guided by the Theory of Regulation, the study confirms one co-integrating relationship, revealing significant long-run effects: a $1 million increase in vandalism costs raises SAIFI by 0.85 interruptions per customer, reflecting financial losses from incidents like the 2020 Tororo substation sabotage; a $1 million increase in investment reduces SAIFI by 0.62, underscoring funding’s role in reliability; and a 1% increase in urbanization rate increases SAIFI by 1.12, driven by rapid urban demand growth. Short-run dynamics and impulse response functions show impacts peak within two years, converging within five. Robustness is validated through diagnostic tests (serial correlation, heteroscedasticity, normality, specification) and stability analyses (eigenvalues, IRFs). Findings highlight vandalism’s financial burden, a $39.40 million investment gap, and urbanization’s strain on grid capacity, challenging Uganda’s regulatory framework. Policy recommendations include community-based anti-vandalism programs, public-private partnerships to boost investment, urban grid upgrades, and demand-side management to align with the National Development Plan III’s universal access goal by 2030. The study contributes to energy economics by quantifying reliability determinants in a developing context, offering a framework for Sub-Saharan African nations, and suggests future research into regional SAIFI variations and qualitative vandalism drivers.