Browsing by Author "Atukunda, Lilian"

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    Macroeconomic Variables and Sectoral Output Growth Performance in Uganda (1991q-2023q).
    (Makerere University Business School, 2025-10-30) Atukunda, Lilian
    This study investigated the relationship between selected macroeconomic variables and sectoral output growth in Uganda, covering the period from 1991 to 2023. The study focused on the investigation of the effect of interest rates, inflation, exchange rates, FDI, and sector employment on the growth of the agricultural, industrial, and services sectors in Uganda. Using time series quarterly data, the estimation of the empirical model was achieved by adopting a Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR). Findings from this study reveal that, whereas the macroeconomic variables of exchange rate and foreign direct investment positively influence the sectoral output growth in Uganda, the variables of interest rate and inflation do not have any significant effect on sectoral output growth in Uganda. When it comes to the macroeconomic variable of employment, findings from the study revealed asymmetric effects: the industrial sector employment variable showed a positive and significant consequence on the industrial output growth, and the agricultural sector employment variable showed a negative effect on the agricultural sector output growth. In contrast, the services sector employment variable showed no effect on the services sector output growth. The study recommends policies to boost sectoral output growth in Uganda. Promoting foreign direct investment in the services sector can drive innovation, job creation, and technology transfer. Prudent management of foreign exchange movements, including moderating currency fluctuations, can enhance trade and build reserves. In addition, aligning employment policies with sectoral productivity by shifting labor from low-yield agriculture to higher-yield industry and services can support structural transformation and long-term growth. Keywords: Macroeconomic variables, sector output, SUR, Uganda.