Browsing by Author "Ahimbisibwe, Jackieline"

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    Petroleum Revenue Utilization, Governance System and Economic Growth in Uganda.
    (Makerere University Business School, 2025-12-09) Ahimbisibwe, Jackieline
    This study investigates the effect of petroleum revenue utilization and governance systems on economic growth in Uganda for the period 2014 to 2024. Specifically, the study aims to: (I)examine the effect of petroleum revenue utilization on economic growth, (ii) evaluate the effect of governance systems on economic growth, and (iii) determine whether governance system moderate the relationship between petroleum revenue utilization and economic growth. To achieve these objectives, the study employed an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL)framework, estimated in Error Correction Model (ECM) form, using monthly data from July 2014to June 2024. The model incorporated petroleum revenue utilization, governance quality, and their interaction term, alongside macroeconomic controls, including inflation, gross capital formation, and exchange rates. Additionally, seasonal effects and pandemic related shocks were captured using monthly dummies and a COVID indicator. The results indicate that, in the long run, petroleum revenue utilization has a statistically significant but negative effect on real economic growth, while governance quality shows an insignificant direct effect. However, the study finds that governance systems do not significantly moderate the petroleum revenue growth relationship during the pre-production period. In the short run, gross capital formation exerts a strong positive effect on growth, underscoring the importance of productive investment for Uganda’s economic transformation. Overall, the findings highlight that without transparent governance, efficient petroleum revenue management, and robust institutional frameworks, Uganda risks suboptimal growth outcomes despite its substantial petroleum reserves. The study recommends strengthening petroleum fiscal rules, improving project appraisal and execution, enhancing institutional accountability, and developing mechanisms for transparent reporting to ensure that petroleum resources translate into growth.